Uzbek secrets. With whom will Karimov remain?

S. Brodin/ Appeared on centrasia.ru on 31.03.2007

Sudden emerging of a new opposition party, a so-called Sunshine Coalition in spring 2005, on the arena of politial life of Uzbekistan, and its loud statements and declarations of its leader Sanjar Umarov, as well as the following meetings in foreign capitals have caused ambiguous reaction that varied from cautious - to candid scepticism and resentment. Sanjar Umarov used the support of his relative Nigora Khidoyatova, the most seen activist of opposition in Uzbekistan nowadays, who re-established the party of “Ozod Dehqonlar”(free peasants). In a certain degree it was unerringly her, voluntarily or involuntarily, who provided such a bright and sensational framework, in which S.Umarov appeared before the amazed public. He was cautiously supported by the leader of the Birlik party Abdurahim Pulatov, who is currently in exile in the USA. The former ambassador of Uzbekistan to the US Babur Malikov also active currently in the US, and by the way, the relative of Nigora Khidoyatova, was apparently in a full perplexity, and due to this made controversial statements. Famous Uzbek dissident Hazratkul Hudoiberdi, did not accept Umarov and asked a rhetoric question:”Who are you, Sanjar Umarov?”. Generally, the opinions of old oppositioners could be summarized as “we don’t know him”.Sanjar Umarov characterized himself as a young entrepreneur („oligarch“ according to his own expression), who comes from the family of outstanding Uzbek scientist-academician and the leader of the united moderate opposition to the regime of I.Karimov. Umarov attained the support of the western political and business circles, as well as, at least of one million people of the population of Uzbekistan, who developed the plan of political and economic renewal of Uzbekistan and calling the ruling regime to an open constructive dialogue on the ways of pulling the country out of deep crisis. He used to be engaged in the business of transportation and selling of oil and gas. In particular, he was engaged in the business of delivering reactive fuels in large volumes from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan for the needs of American troops, and demonstrated grateful letters of the Pentagon for the contribution in the combat of international terrorism in foreign capital cities. He stated that he is ready to attract one billion US dollars in the form of investments into the economy of Uzbekistan and called out I.Karimov to the discussion of concrete projects on capturing of these investments.The question of the personality of Sanjar Umarov and powers, which apparently stood behind him, as later became obvious, interested many. Journalists and politologists published many articles dedicated to speculations on the topic. It was noted that the emerging of S.Umarov as a leader of opposition happened on the eve of Andijan events, and the coalition itself was formed “in a strange rush”. Everyone agreed that his kinship relations played a big role in the appearance of S.Umarov as a leader of the „Sunshine Coalition“, and the fact that he became an oligarch could not have happened without the role of secret services, which “protect” firms dealing with oil and gas. It was often said that S.Umarov might be a „project” of the government (the daughter of the president was mentioned) and that S.Umarov is a mere provocateur. On the other hand, he could have represented retired officials, who could not forgive I.Karimov their suspension from the office – here as the first possible candidates - former First Deputy Prime Minister R.Azimov, against whom at that time a criminal case was opened, and retired General of the National Security Service B.Gulyamov were mentioned. Another possibility was that he might have represented people from the surrounding of I.Karimov, realizing whole malignance of the foreign and home politics for the destiny of the country. In other words, there are many dissatisfied actors in the country.In the spring of 2005 all companies to which S.Umarov was related to underwent a total scrutiny, and finally on the 23rd of October 2005 he was arrested on the accusations of financial manipulations that were carried out through the joint Uzbek-American venture Neftegaztrans. The day following the publication of the press-realise of the General Prosecutor Office a statement of the Neftegaztrans was released, convincingly denying all the accusations of the prosecutors. Moreover, it became clear that S.Umarov never worked for the joint venture and did not participate in its management. When the attorney V.Krasilovski visited S.Umarov in the interrogational isolator, he found him in an insane state, which gave a reason for some authors to state doubts about sanity of S.Umarov. It is amazing how many people attempted to convince us that the case of S. Umarov was a case of an insane man or a criminal, who tried to cover his financial crimes with political activity. In the duration of the case, we were advised to wait for the court decision of this strange case. Unfortunately, we could not hope for that, it was known what answers the trial in Uzbekistan gives, the process on the participants of the Andijan riot was still too fresh in our minds. And it turned out to be right. S.Umarov was announced guilty on all the accusations and was imprisoned for a long term. His property was confiscated. His relatives, excluding one, were persecuted and had fled. The government showed that no dissent and opposition in the country will be tolerated.Nevertheless, what people were behind S.Umarov, if they could manipulate the media like that? Does it mean that the whole intrigue of this phenomenon of the political life in Uzbekistan of 2005, as well as the answer to the question, who is he – Sanjar Umarov, will remain unclear? In fact, the whole so-called high politics consists of a chain of events, to which we do not pay attention in daily life and for this reason do not understand their logical link and final objective. First of all, let’s remember that Umarov was younger brother in the family. Uzbeks know that the youngest stays in the family nest, and the elder leave it. Indeed, on the frontiers of the 1990s his elder brothers – Gayrat and Abror started exploring America, and especially liked Mississippi. But business is sacred, and in Uzbekistan it is almost always family run. In 1996 a joint Uzbek-American venture Uzneftegaztrans was founded. The objectives of the JV were transportation of oil and gas. Uzbekistan is remote from world trade roads, and due to this transportation is the most important resource of the state with billions of dollars revenue. Resources usually have an owner and everyone knows that transportation of oil and gas in Uzbekistan are controlled personally by the chief of the National Security R.Inoyatov. He does it through three close persons – Sh.R.Inoyatov (you are right his son) and two cousins – A.Karimov known in the republic also as “Chapa”, and B.Ergashev. The leading role, while Inoyatov junior is growing up, belongs to B.Ergashev, and Chapa is an old specialist on long distance transportations and plays also another important role. He is, so to say, an eyeball of the “street” and makes contacts, in particular with famous authority of the shadow business Gafur Gulyamov. These contacts are relieved by a hobby - boxing. Chapa is a member of the box federation, and G.Rahimov patrons boxers. Moreover, G.Rahimov has partnership with holding company of R.Inoyatov “Benif”. When a couple of years ago one of the chiefs of a department of national security started looking into manipulations and machinations of Chapa on railroads, he was immediately asked to leave on retirement, as people say, he is still grateful to R.Inoyatov for such a mild punishment.Subjects to special attention of R.Inoyatov are transportation, transit and trade with Afghanistan. None passes the Uzbek-Afghan border without his personal permission (border controlling was transferred under the authority of national security service). He attracted many close people from the national security (retired and still working), as well as his old connections from Afghanistan established still when he worked there as an employee of the USSR KGB. For good there is a lot of money in Afghanistan - the coalition is taking care of it, and the needs are growing day by day, so, the business of Inoyatov with Afghanistan is blooming. When a couple of years ago one of the mayors of one the southern provinces of Uzbekistan (by the way, acting officer of the reserve of national security agency) decided to intervene in the trade with Afghanistan (through his relatives of course), he was decisively removed from the position.But let’s go back to Chapa. Chapa and Abror Umarov are married to two sisters, and are “bodja”s (brothers-in-law). Bodjas among Uzbeks are closer than brothers, they share everything equally. Due to this, the Umarovs did not have problems with the establishing of the JV on the transportation of oil and gas. The founders of the JV from the Uzbek side were Uzneftegazdobycha, Uzvneshneftegaz, Uzvneshtrans and from the American side Ecoil Technologies Inc., registered by the brothers in 1995 in Mississippi. Founding documents were signed by O.A.Cleveland on the party of Ecoil and Deputy Director of Uzneftegazdobycha E.Vagapov, and General Director of Uzvneshtrans B.Ismailov. A.Umarov worked with E.Vagapov at Spezenergogas during Soviet times. Why B.Ismailov signed the document on the creation of a rival company? We should keep in mind that Uzvneshtrans is a company under the Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations, and in the appointment of the Colonel of the National Security E.Ganiev as a Minister was by far thanks to R.Inoyatov. Founding charter of the JV was 50,000 US dollars, 15 thousand of which were from the Americans. Already in the first years JV carried out transportation counted to dozens of millions dollars, the profit was not shared among founders, but rather would be directed on the “strengthening of the financial state of the venture”. Meanwhile, carriages and trade were going with an increasing tempo, and the brothers did not sign any papers, the Americans in Afghanistan were satisfied receiving fuel from Uzbekistan, and in the new building of Uzneftegazdobicha on the Amir Temur street a supermarket called Zafar(victory) belonging to the brothers was located on favoured conditions. It was a real victory. The company went through all the checking without any problems, none asked stupid questions. Everyone knew about kinship links of S.Umarov and Chapa, and family business of the Umarovs was sanctified by the authority of R.Inoyatov. Of course, during the interrogation on S.Umarov’s case, when the proceedings with his relatives started, despite far relatives such as T.Inogamov, the father of his son-in-law involved, who had to flee the country, none disturbed A.Karimov (Chapa).Let’s remember the time of the creation of Sunshine Coalition. What was the main event of the political life of the country at that time? These were proceedings on 23 young businessmen-akramis in Andijan, daily demonstrations of hundreds of people on the square in front of the court. These were the relatives, close people of the arrested, workers and employees of their ventures. Close to despair, about who none cared. On the 13th of May thousands of ordinary inhabitants of Andijan joined them, hoping to meet their president. Foreign mass media was talking about it, but the Uzbek media kept full silence. Why the court proceedings were carried out in their hometown, where everyone understood the absurdity of the official accusations? Before this kind of court proceedings would always be held in other towns and places unknown to arrestants and their relatives. What changed the usual rules? What changed the intuition of Karimov, who consulted him? Did not he know about the tension of the situation, were not Kokand events a lesson for him? The court process was ending, the verdict was about to be declared, representatives of foreign mass media were gathering in Andijan, employees of the embassies in Uzbekistan were travelling in the valley to learn the mood of people. Expectation lingered in the valley air.Meanwhile, the followers of Akramiya were getting prepared to liberate defendants, weapons were being gathered, people also gathered, secret meetings and improvised instructions were held. Everything was done unprofessionally. The followers of A.Yuldashev, a famous religious activist, who is imprisoned since the 1990s, were gathering from various regions of Uzbekistan, as well as Uzbeks-Akramis from Kyrghizistan. Financial support came from Uzbeks working in Russia. These people in no way matched the image of international terrorists. Despite the wide network of spies and detectives, especially in the valley, National Security Service(NSS) did not want to discover these preparations. The former head of military intelligence S.Ismailov openly says that NSS had information on the afoot riot, but did not inform the President I.Karimov.Ultimately happened what happened. One of the local politologists compared the events in Andijan to the events in France in the end of 2005. He is fully right. In both cases these were uprisings of marginalised group of the population. Reasons of such marginalisation are different, but the consequences similarly destructive, pointless, and aimless. But in France these people were not shot, as the government did not fear them, and did not fear that masses of the population would join them. In Andijan on the contrary Karimov feared that the population in the valley is not only deprived of all political and economic rights and freedoms, but also lives in the conditions of total corruption of the local governments, and law enforcements agencies, mass unemployment and poverty, without any hope for the improvement of its own situation.As a result of this corruption and organised state racketeering any business inevitably becomes criminal. This was also a topic during the meetings of the Prime-Minister Sh.Mirziyayev with local population and entrepreneurs that were held soon after Andijan events. All the participants complained on the actions of the government, and impossibility of doing any business activity, and mass impoverishment of the population. Because of this the army was immediately transferred under the command of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. One could not rely on the militia only. Living among the population militia shares understanding with the resentment of people, which could be observed in the events of Kokand in 2004. Militioners then watched without any action while storming crowds burnt cars, crashed windows, and captured officials. Moreover, they directed the crowd with whoops to the municipality of the city. Indeed, Andijan fully discredited the militia and the troops of interior in the eyes of Karimov.Amazingly, the rioters did not have political demands. It contradicts Karimov’s version about the American involvement in the organisation of the Andijan uprising or riot. Did the court understand that? Similarly, putting the responsibility for managing the rioters via mobile phone from the prison on Akram Yuldashev, the court stood against the official version that the Andijan events were organised action of Americans to carry out another orange revolution. Indeed, would not Americans in this case supply the rioters with appropriate slogans, or train how to control the process, without burdening imprisoned A.Yuldashev?What would happen if the rioters overthrew the government? What would they do with the current government, having no slogans, no acceptable political or economic programs, or some group of politicians on whom they could rely? In this case, Sanjar Umarov with his Sunshine coalition was a heaven’s gift.Does it mean thatt R.Inoyatov organised Sunshine coalition and the Andijan events? Absolutely not. But exactly R.Inoyatov made Umarov an oligarch and Umarov knew that he owes R.Inoyatov the rise of his family business. R.Inoyatov knew about the trial of the Akramis, knew about the demonstrations and he must have known what the consequences could have been. He knew that militia won’t be able to manage the riot - riot is more terrible than terrorists. He also knew that not possessing the administrative resource, even in the case of success, S.Umarov would have to come to him, at least with the request of help or silence. In other words, R.Inoyatov did not lose anything, and having the control of Umarov, he could be the godfather of the new regime. It was a win-win situation. In order to create the conditions for such a game R.Inoyatov had to ignore the things, what he actually did in the end.But the destiny dictated its own rules. The riot in Andijan was crushed and blood was shed. Thereat, the government had other means for non-lethal influence to scatter all the people gathered on the Babur square. But to use big calibre shotguns was decided. It was aimed at spreading fear, and demonstrate that the government will not tolerate any opposition. These actions were relieved with the Law on the immunity of the President and his family from criminal persecution discretely passed in the parliament.Andijan events, as well as all existing state of affairs in Uzbekistan, regardless of any field of human activity, be it economy, industry, agriculture, health care etc., testify total incompetence of high authorities of the country, and in first place that of I.Karimov. A good example of incompetence of I.Karimov is the constitutional crisis which arised in regard of excess of the term of presidential powers. In this sense Andijan is absolutely not an exceptional case.There are no eventualities in politics, there are only winners and losers. Who lost in those events in Uzbekistan? Islam Karimov lost on all occasions. Because of that he is together with his family buying and selling everything now in Uzbekistan, all what has at least some worth, including sacred resource of Uzbek statehood, the gold mining industry. Today, he needs to tie up Russia to himself with common interests, and not only political. What can better fasten, if not the best fields of economy of Uzbekistan, especially if business partners are Russians close to the government. In that case he can be calm for his family. Exactly this was portrayed by I.Karimov with extreme sincerity during the meeting with V.Putin in Sochi, when he offered Russian entrepreneurs most attractive objects of Uzbek industry.The winner was R.Inoyatov. Ministry of Interior and the Minister Z.Almatov forfeiting their troops that were transferred to the NSS lost in political weight. The latter got sick and will be treated as an honorary pensioner. He does not have any influence on the trend of affairs. Besides, several criminal trials initiated against his close allies, shows that repose for him is not guaranteed. The new minister B.Matlubov can’t make a consistent counter-balance to R.Inoyatov, the ministry is not what it used to be. After a scandalous dismissal of K.Gulamov, the officer of the NSS R.Mirzaev became the Minister of Defence, who previously served in the Intelligence Department of the Defence Ministry and then came to the ranks of the Secretary of Security Council. M.Ataev, who up to recently was the deputy of R.Inoyatov became the Secretary of Security Council, and R.Shamshiev who was first deputy of R.Inoyatov, became Advisor to I.Karimov on administrative-cadre affairs, and finally former chief of the interrogatory department of the NSS A.Nabiev became the State Advisor on law enforcement agencies.In such a way, a transition to a new chapter in the history of Uzbekistan came into existence. If before people could balance between two centres of force – R.Inoyatov and Z.Almatov, and the Ministry of Defence could be employed to keep the balance of powers, now the situation cardinally changed. Today the NSS not only controls all systems of ruling the country, but directly guides them. However, the victory of R.Inoyatov turned out to be ephemeral due to the changing role of Russia.Since the first days of independence I.Karimov tried to put under total control all branches of social life, all forms of public and private life of the citizens. The reason is fearing of people, due to which any type of dissent is suppressed in its roots. As a result of this, there was created a system of total surveillance and reporting, control of any activity and thinking of the society. Fear for own tranquillity forces people to tolerate any type of evil, and violence. This fear has surrealistic character, as the punishment is possible for anything. One does not know what he should be cautious of, everything has potential threat. Official propaganda justifies the strengthening of secret services and law enforcement agencies through the care of the security of the country, its people, and combating terrorism. As a sample, I.Karimov took Soviet system brought to absurdity. Because in Soviet times arbitrary behaviour of KGB was eventually limited by the authority of the communistic party that provided for its existence on all levels of society, and on all levels of management. Who can save the Uzbeks from the frivolence of secret services and law enforcement agencies? There exists no such structure, and none can give a guarantee that those who came from NSS will be loyal to I.Karimov rather than their chief R.Inoyatov, especially in the circumstances where security service is the main source of information for I.Karimov. It is important to note that R.Inoyatov talks with I.Karimov at least twice a day. As long as these conversations touch upon a wide range of issues, they are used by R.Inoyatov to terminate personae non grata and to manipulate Karimov.I.Karimov can not and does not want to limit total corruption and racketeering, arisen to the ranks of state policies, the source of which in first place is the NSS and law enforcement agencies, as without them Karimov can not keep his rule and manage the state. Exactly this corruption and racketeering are the core reasons of non-fulfilment of the majority of economic and social projects, and the means allocated for them are defalcated. A provocative situation came into existence in Uzbekistan now, where I.Karimov virtually became a hostage of his own system of state management, in which secret services play a dominant and an increasing role. R.Inoyatov showed remarkable potential of a politician to achieve this position.Like any authoritarian personality, I.Karimov overestimates the power of his influence on his close surrounding, as well as personal devotion of these people. The ability of R.Inoyatov to betray his close comrades without any doubts, like it happened with the former First Deputy Prime Minister K.Tulyaganov, is unconditionally a force major case, and was aimed at leading I.Karimov into delusion. The approaches of R.Inoyatov to serving various and expanding requests of the Karimov’s family, first of all that of his daughters, who he hates due to constantly colliding business interests, also serves for this aim. Today, R.Inoyatov is in the position to displace I.Karimov. If he does not do it, there are obvious, as well as hidden from the public reasons.Among obvious reasons, first of all is the legitimating of the new regime, though after the 22nd of January 2007 there exist all legal bases for that; secondly, R.Inoyatov will face difficulties in economic issues, he fully realizes that the economic issues will be of the main concern if he desires to lead the country; third, necessity to come out of international isolation, change approaches to foreign politics of the country, as it needs to have strong working relations with both West and East, as well as neighbouring states. Karimov’s policies in this regard do not base on the consideration of the interests of bigger states in Uzbekistan, but rather on their opposing and pitting. Here, and in many other fields Uzbekistan has to learn from its neighbour Kazakhstan.R.Inoyatov can overcome all these problems. He has enough intelligence and political maturity to realize all the problems existing in the country. His critical statements in narrow circles about Karimov’s economic policies are well known. He has good relations with business elites both in Uzbekistan and abroad, being one of the richest people in Uzbekistan, he has the trust of big Uzbek businessmen in Russia and Kazakhstan.He has strong organizational skills to be able to attract remaining competent specialists to the reforming of the state management. He can eliminate corruption. He lacks xenophoby, as well as sadism and authoritarianism of I.Karimov, and last not the least political adventurism. He understands very well that politics is the art of possible. He maintains close business relations with companies and firms behind which stand Prime Minister Sh.Mirziyayev, deputies of Prime Minister R.Azimov and A.Aripov, the Chairman of Uzkhlopkoprom(cotton) E.Zikriyayev, Minister of Trade Z.Fayziev, Mayors of Tashkent city and province as well as many others. Finally Inoyatov very well knows the situation in the country and that of the masses. His informative letters to the Cabinet of Ministers distinguished not only by deep competence, but also by constructive and efficient suggestions. It is other case that they are almost never implemented. According to the masses of the population of Uzbekistan he is the best alternative to Karimov, and apparently Inoyatov understands it very well.But this is not the most important – what is important now is that Russia does not want I.Karimov to step down. Inoyatov does not want to go against Russia, he won’t be able to develop Uzbekistan without it. R.Inoyatov has long established relations with secret services of Russia, which never ended. These relations go far beyond the frames of those agreements, which exist between Uzbekistan and Russia, and that consider not only exchange of information, but also corporate operative measures. Even during the climax of Uzbek-American love, which began in 1999, when Americans stepped out to I.Karimov with the cooperation offer and began with the help of R.Inoyatov their intelligence flights over Afghanistan from the Shahrisabz airport, the relations with Russians did not suffer, but even acquired stronger and regular character. In consequence, Russia was very well informed about plans and intentions of I.Karimov about the relations with the USA. Moreover, reports and analytical notes of the Uzbek NSS led by Inoyatov played not the last role in famous xenophoby of I.Karimov and acute cooling of mutual relations with the USA starting from 2003, after a well-known letter of the President G.Bush which stated the necessity for political and economic reforms in Uzbekistan.Russia of course has strong positions in special forces of Uzbeksitan. Periodical processes on Russian spies in Uzbekistan testify on that. The brightest of them is though is secretly carried out trial on the Deputy Chief of the Foreign Intelligence Department of National Security Service of Uzbekistan G.Mirzamuhamedov, and Head of General Intelligence Department of the Ministry of Defence S.Ismailov. According to competent sources they worked in full certainty of their impunity. By the way, G.Mirzamukhamedov now resides in Russia.Russia was also informed of what was going on in Fergana valley in 2005, as well as what powers acted behind S.Umarov. „Unprofessionalism” of R.Inoyatov in all those events could be initiated by Russia, as Andijan and S.Umarov were extremely useful for Russia in ist geopolitical battle for Uzbeksitan.On the 13th of March Uzbekistan de-facto lost its sovereignty. It happened not due to Andijan, but due to the actions of I.Karimov. Using the expression of a high-ranking Uzbek diplomat I.Karimov homologates his own interests with national interests of Uzbekistan, which becomes a clear political voluntarism and opportunism. Colliding the interests of various states in Uzbekistan, he bases on his own interests of personal safety, as well as internal incentives of his own character – everyone knows his habit of pitting his close subordinates. He identifies this policy, which is damaging national interests of the country, as the form of the highest political art. Exactly due to that for self-protection reasons he had to surrender on the mercy of Russia, which met him as a long-awaited prodigal son. Actions of I.Karimov in Andijan were officially supported by Russia. It has to be mentioned that the statements of Russian Minister of Foreign Relations S.Lavrov and former Minister of Defence S.Ivanov contained numerous implications on their being informed about the core essence of Andijan events.The statements of Putin on this issues also contain rhetorics of I.Karimov, particularly when he announces that Russia categorically opposes any revolutions on the post-Soviet space, and favours evolutionary development in Uzbekistan. One can understand him orange revolutions did not bring any good to Russia, and the evolutionary process in Uzbekistan now can be regulated and controlled in the needed for Russia direction. Amazing metamorphosis happened in those days with Russian mass media – from the total rejection of Tashkent official version on the Andijan events up to its unconditional support. Indeed, one can only applause to Putin. Russia opposed international inquiry of Andijan shooting. Actions of akramits in Andijan were significantly financed on the account of their followers working in Russia. By the way, these people(Ivanov Uzbeks) were never extradited to Uzbekistan. Ultimately, all the attempts of S.Umarov to achieve any dialogue or understanding from the Russian government barged into the wall of silence. On the other hand, Russia could not act any other way, if it was involved in the tragic events of 2005 in Uzbekistan. Then, it means that S.Umarov from the very beginning was designated to play the role of a real threat on I.Karimov, reminding that various variants of the development of the events were possible.I.karimov made required for Russia conclusions. And now he looks totally predictable and needed for Russia, which has to collect the fruits of its success. In this sense, he is more preferred than R.Inoyatov. Inoyatov personally less dependent on Russia in the current situation. The worse it is for Uzbekistan (during his regime it cannot be better), the more will Karimov rely on Russia and thus stronger and deeper will he be “submitting” the country to Russia. Because of this Kremlin cadre political technologists are working now on boosting the image of I.Karimov and his daughter in mass media.With this support I.Karimov began his pre-elections campaign making statements on the session of the Cabinet of Ministers on the 13th of February. Giving his orders up to 2011 and further he clearly pointed out that he is not going to leave, though his statements about amazing successes of the country did not convince anyone.Considering R.Inoyatov, he does not have such sins before the Uzbek people. He has all the potential to win the trust of the people. If he comes to power he will surely restore the country, which means he will be open to the whole world, as without relations with the West country won’t develop. Russia does not need it, or, perhaps, not yet. The question is how would I.Karimov remai in power. If he decides to redistribute the power and in some way to put forward a successor on the post of President, in this case it will not be Inoyatov. He is too dangerous. On the other hand the choice is not big, as the politicians surrounding him were systematically eliminated. In the President office there are no politicians, except for First Deputy of the Secretary of the National Security Council M.Rakhmankulov, but he has always been on the back plan, playing the role of a grey cardinal. There are no politicians also in the Cabinet of Ministers, except for Sh.Mirziyayev and R.Azimov, but the Prime Minister is infamous for being a “bouncer”(beating of farmers and etc.). Minister E.Ganiyev could not distance himself from R.Inoyatov. Minister of Defence R.Mirzayev not only strongly dependant on Inoyatov, but also belongs to other nationality. Thus, most probable candidate is R.Azimov. But will R.Inoyatov be able to be under R.Azimov and will he want it? It is not excepted that he could become Uzbek Berezovski under R.Azimov’s rule. In any case, time is ticking and also R.Inoyatov might remain without chances for the realization of his plans.USA accused of participating in Andijan events were kicked out of Uzbekistan. Western countries except for Germany lost the right to use Uzbek air space for the flights to Afghanistan. It was done by Karimov not as much due to practical necessity, but more to demonstrate its new orientation on Russia. The West once again was convinced that opportunistic politics in relation to dictatorship regimes can not be fruitful and eternal. This includes also economy. Not to forget that all big companies with American capital were forced to leave the country after Andijan. West is forced to manoeuvre not to give Uzbekistan irreversibly to Russian ownership. Only for this reason USA continues to cooperate with the NSS and other power departments of the country in frames of various programmes. Due to this same reason European Union quietly restored its projects in Uzbekistan, though sanctions are formally remain in force.Today Uzbekistan lost independent foreign politics. Uzbekistan joined EuraSec, which until recently was exposed to anathema, the country also returned to the Treaty Organisation on Collective Security which it left loudly in 1999., and the nation can watch the humiliation of its president on various meeting and summits. Many have seen how the president of Tajikistan publicly ridiculed I.Karimov. It is a deserved payment for competing for a role of bigger brother of Tajikistan, and also for the organisation, thanks to God, of an unsuccessful raid of the bandit M.Hudoiberdiev on Hojand city, as well as for neglecting Tajik interests. It is a deserved payment of Uzbek people. What is the nation like, so is the President. Perhaps, now people understand what are the reason of total devastation of the country, impoverishment of the population, migration of the most entrepreneous and talented people abroad.But all the plans of Russia might prove wrong, as they do not know the personality of Karimov very well. From the first days of independence Karimov, first in a hidden way, then openly initiated anti-russian mood in Uzbekistan, as he saw and still thinks Russian influence as a threat to his absolute power in the country. Turning to Russia is a force-major. Agreements with Russia will be realized only to an extent which serves his own interests and does not limit his absolute power in economic and political issues. There are many proofs of it. He gave orders to high ranking officials by the means of various implications and reservations not to let the signing of a number of important documents of EuraSec, which Uzbekistan joined in 2005. The attempts to restore relations with the West or to show himself as an enlightened muslim ruler also imply on this. The aim of all that is to get out of the strong braces of the new ally. It should not be forgotten that the main problem of the Uzbek-Russian relations was I.Karimov himself.Andijan events give three lessons to Uzbek people. First he can not and should not hope that some foreign forces will come and liberate them from tyranny. It is connected to a simple circumstance – US, Russia, and the EU have their national interests and priorities. No matter how important protection of human rights is, it can not be number one priority in Uzbekistan. Second, Muslim community of Uzbekistan is the strongest and sequential fighter with the authority of I.Karimov. In this fight it has strong sympathy of the population of the country, particularly of its mostly educated segment, which got used to see itself as an intellectual elite of the society, but which showed full impotence under usurpation of the authority by I:Karimov. Third, the interests which Karimov protects do not have anything in common with national interests of Uzbekistan.Considering Sanjar Umarov, an individual and oligarch, who has always been in the shadow of elder people and suddenly decided to get out to the sun, must have been fully used. That is why he looked lost after Andijan riot, because of that he could not define his attitude to it.On the 13th of March 2005 he lost. Despite all the circumstances, he is a national hero of Uzbekistan. Because no matter what the past circumstances are, he’s overcome them, and overcame himself. If anyone prescribed him a certain role, he went beyond its borders. Because he openly stood up, and stood against Karimov. He showed that it is possible and should be done. All the rest is not important. And the trial of S.Umarov on economic grounds is a repetition of Stalinist amlgam where political accusations are masked into economic clothes, it is an open demonstration of the cowardness of I.Karimov, who is afraid to accept that there are people in Uzbekistan who are against his political system. Karimov is afraid that the people of Uzbekistan will take the example of S.Umarov. So, Uzbek people should overcome their fear, like S.Umarov did.

Sergey Brodin
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